Reflections on Football, Climate, Security, and Kamala Harris

The Earth is record-breaking hot

Copernicus Climate ERA5 preliminary data show that Monday, July 22, was the warmest day in recent history, at 17.15°C, breaking the records from July 21, 2024, and July 6, 2023.

My involvement with football has been limited to casual spectating, save for a brief minor liaison role with the Dutch team during the 1996 European Football Championship in England. My interest in the sport was so minimal that I am trying to remember who won the title that year. However, a particular memory from that event resurfaced as I read today's news.

On our way to one of the stadiums, I sat next to a police officer who shared insights into the security measures during football matches. He mentioned an intriguing strategy: transporting a bus with football supporters in cooler temperatures to reduce aggression. Reflecting on this conversation 26 years later, I realize it was my first encounter with the concept that temperature could influence security. At the time, global warming was barely on the radar; the second Conference of the Parties (COP 2) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was still a month away.

Today, the link between climate and security is widely acknowledged. However, it is far more complex than the notion that people become more aggressive in a hot bus; it encompasses aspects like resource scarcity, migration, economy, inequality, or human security.

Since that casual football conversation, significant research has established that higher temperatures correlate with increased crime rates, particularly violent crimes. Studies indicate that on days when temperatures exceed 85°F (29.4°C), overall crime rates rise by 2.2% and violent crime by 5.7%.

Record-breaking hot

This past Sunday marked the hottest day ever recorded on Earth, with a global average temperature of 17.09°C (62.8°F). Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, declared that we are now in "truly uncharted territory" and predicted more record-breaking temperatures in future months and years. His words proved prophetic faster than anticipated. Just 24 hours later, Copernicus announced a new record: 17.15°C (62.9°F).

The breaking of the global average record was accompanied by many local records broken. This alarming trend underscores the urgency of addressing climate change as human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, continue to pollute the atmosphere. 

Like football supporters in a sweltering bus, the warming climate seems to correlate with heightened international tensions and aggressive politics.

Kamala Harris

But as I wrote yesterday, I suddenly feel hope for America's future or less despair, which is itself a hopeful development. Kamala Harris has a limited but commendable track record on climate change, especially for supporting the Green New Deal initiative. 

If she is elected as the next US president, she may be able to make a significant policy change. Biden's climate record paints a mixed picture. On the one hand, he introduced America's most ambitious climate change policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, which led to record investments in renewable energy and an increase in electric vehicle sales.

However, Trump, with his "drill, baby, drill" slogan, granted some 300 licenses per year for oil and gas drilling in his four years as president. Compare that to Biden, who agreed to a record-breaking 758 licenses last year. That complicates climate negotiations with the rest of the world, especially as the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas.

My hope for Kamala Harris as US President is that the planet and the dangerously heated international relations will cool down under her leadership.

It's like opening a window in a heated bus of football supporters; a fresh breeze can work like magic.

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Notes:

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25961/w25961.pdf