Lessons from James Dean for COP26

Driving towards the edge of the 1.5C climate cliff, can we jump out in time?

photo: Markus Spiske

You will likely remember the famous scene in Rebel Without a Cause where James Dean, playing Jim, has to prove himself against Buzz in a "Chickie Run." They drive their stolen cars towards the edge of a cliff, and the one that jumps out of the car first is the chicken. But in this terrifying game, you are only the loser if the other one jumps out in time before driving off the cliff. Buzz loses his life when the strap of his jacket sleeve becomes entangled with the door-latch lever, preventing him from jumping out.

Could there have been a more fortunate ending? Yes, of course, that would start by sitting down together, talking, and working out your differences. Jim and Buzz would have soon found out that there are many shared interests and that simply not playing chickie run would be the least risky and most profitable decision. They could have joined forces, which is Nathalie Wood's approach after the incident. She was Buzz's lover but didn't waste much time after his death before apologizing for her cold behavior towards Jim, warms up to his charms, and soon finds that she struggles with challenges at home just like Jim does.

Close to 1.5C

Our cliff is 1.5C. Nearly 200 cars race towards the edge and will soon plunge collectively into the future we don't want. A more accurate version would be that only a few dozen trucks race to the cliff's edge, but they have taken in tow all of the poor cars that never felt like playing chickie run in the first place. It was not their game, they are not to blame for this heating planet, but not one car escapes the disastrous policies played by the big bullies.

They all sit down and talk now in Glasgow like Jim and Buzz should have done in California in 1955. The scientists explain that we have the knowledge, technology, and financial possibilities to halt climate change. It also makes economically good sense to prevent and prepare now, instead of waiting for costly, unproven technology to capture carbon from the atmosphere later or repair the damages of climate disasters that we could have prevented by timely adaptation.

But do our leaders have the political will to take action? We are 0.3C from the cliff's edge, while the current policies put us on track for an additional 1.5C in 2100. If you are an optimist and believe all countries will follow up on their pledges, we are still looking at an additional 1.2C on top of the 1.2C we already have. So, collectively, even if all countries in the world do what they have now promised to do, we get four times as much extra warming in this century as we have left in our' warming budget' of only 0.3C.

I use the same numbers you have read in this morning's newspaper; I only present them differently. Every newspaper article I read compares 1.5C with 2.7C (policies) or 2.4C (pledges). That sounds so much more doable than the reality I just presented to you, where I subtracted the 1.2C that we already warmed. Sorry for this cold shower, but this is the way that I see our challenges.

Let’s stop the chickie run

Back to Glasgow: nobody has to fall off the cliff if we all stop our cars now. Wouldn't that be great? If we could all forget about our pride, recognize each others' different positions, build trust and understanding, and help each other get through this most challenging time for humanity, we could make a better world. We have to recognize that what is best for a country, a business, or an individual is not best for the world community.

It is a classic example of the tragedy of the commons, where too many people let their cattle eat from the limited amount of grass. Within a village or a country, an effective government can set rules. But we lack a worldwide government; a UN climate treaty and annual meetings are the best tools to reach an agreement. The fact that we needed 26 COPs to get us where we are now (far off target) proves how difficult it is to find consensus. But meeting often and listening to each other helps to understand each other's positions better.

A relatively recent development is that now the rich countries, which have historically been responsible for most of the emissions, are also becoming victims of climate change-related extreme weather. It will raise the urgency on the national agendas of the most polluting countries that have for too long ignored the plight of many developing countries that have lived much longer with the terrible impacts of climate change without ever having contributed significantly to the problem. Once we are all in the same lifeboat, the will to find a lasting solution should increase. That may give some hope for the near future while we hope for better news from Glasgow.

I hope Hollywood decides to celebrate the hundreds' birthday of Nicholas Ray's movie in 2055 with a remake of Rebel Without a Cause. I propose a chickie run scene with some 200 electric vehicles that park well before the edge; the drivers get out and celebrate life with a veggie barbecue in the Santa Monica mountains, where Ray filmed the central part of the scene.

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Photo by Markus Spiske from Pexels