Four of the five most severe global risks on the ten-year horizon are environmental. This is one of the conclusions of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024. The key to addressing these risks is cooperation on urgent global issues. However, two-thirds of international experts whose insights form the basis for the annual report anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order; it will be characterized by competition among middle and great powers to establish and enforce new rules and norms.
"We have gotten past the stage where we are to be pardoned if we simply treat any part of our country as something to be 'skinned' for two or three years for the use of the present generation. Whether it is the forests, the water, the scenery, whatever it is, handle it so that your children's children will get the benefit." Wise words from President Roosevelt speaking in 1903 about the unparalled beauty of the Grand Canyon. His words seem to have fallen on deaf ears as 120 years later we are reaping the consequences of "skinning" the earth for man's benefit. As the beauty, mystery and loneliness of the Grand Canyon tell us, "Leave it as it is. Man can only mar it."
The guardrails have come off and this train is on a dangerous crash course. Thank you, Alex, for consistently sounding the alarm bell. Like a scene from Ferris Buehler's Day Off: "Life moves pretty fast, if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." Let's stop and look around. Let's not miss it.
Roosevelt would have agreed to another one of Ferris' insights: "The question isn’t ‘what are we going to do’, the question is ‘what aren’t we going to do' " While the fossil fuel industry loves to promote new things they propose to do (such as capturing carbon), the debate should be much more about what we aren't going to do, stop buring fossil fuels is a good start.
I agree when you write that « …those private sector respondents will have seen a year of unprecedented environment-related disasters that may finally convince them of the utmost urgency to act and that civil society and government stakeholders are right to emphasize the growing threat of reaching a point of no return. »
Some responsive action of a few industries is on the go... but it’s timid and faces many contradictors and hurdles.
And there are -of course- lots of generalizations here: some industries are ahead of the curve and some governments are not moving forward an inch towards sustainable policies. But the big picture is very clear and it is good that it's noted in the report.
Would you expand on “critical changes to earth systems”? Pardon my post nap foggy head, but do not understand that topic. However, all are certainly deeply disturbing. Thank you (I think) for sharing. 😘
If I remember correctly both are part of the same system, but I talked and wrote about it concerning rainfall and how a reliance on hydropower was not the smartest idea. I'll email you what I wrote.
Just thought of another system. The north Atlantic current.
"Based on the latest research, at least four systems are considered likely to tip at 1.5°C (Figure 2.5): low-latitude coral reefs die-off (high confidence), collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets (high confidence), and abrupt thawing of permafrost (medium confidence). There is also new evidence to suggest that the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation could additionally be placed at risk at 1.5°C, while the boreal forest, mangroves and seagrass
With each new report of this kind comes greater concerns and higher anxiety.
“The top five risks identified in the report are extreme weather events, critical changes to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and misinformation and disinformation.” No doubt these five top risks are on point but from where I am, it seems misinformation and disinformation underpin almost every risk.
It’s extremely frustrating to see credible scientific reports from experts with indisputable support being sneered at by those whose personal interests outweigh the common good and actual facts.
I also worry greatly about A.I. Although there are many positives about this new technology, in the wrong hands it can be disastrous. There must be some quick and decisive guardrails in place.
Thank you for being the purveyor of this important information for the rest of us. 🙏
"I guess that a year from now, when the 2025 report comes out, those private sector respondents will have seen a year of unprecedented environment-related disasters that may finally convince them of the utmost urgency to act and that civil society and government stakeholders are right to emphasize the growing threat of reaching a point of no return."
Worrying and clear perspectives. The endless dance between power and interests will lead us to a legacy of no options for a reality so clearly foretold. We must be able to dare challenges instead of collecting risks. Thank you for being a continuous voice of warning.
Thank you for drawing my attention to this. That report is definitely not light reading. And it is encouraging that four out of the top five severe global risks are now environmental.
Personally, I would rank misinformation and disinformation higher than 5th. There is so much of it out there especially when it comes to climate change. And it's so difficult to get rid of. Once it's in people's minds it stays there.
I liked figure 2.3 because it shows nicely where the focus of those stakeholders are - I'm with Academia in terms of ranking misinformation and disinformation higher. We need to get a handle on this to pretty much get anything done. As long as the leaders people look up to keep lying about things, nothing is going to change. As long as companies or industries that are only interested in their own profits are allowed keep pushing their mis- and disinformation unhindered - we lose. All of us.
And it's particularly disturbing that misinformation is in an overdrive in the US -historically the biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses- that is uncomparable to any other democratic country. Facts like who won the last election in their country to basic science like the impact of greenhouse gasses on the climate are hardly doubted by the public in the rest of the world. Nor would any other democracy accept a presidential candidate that tried a coup d'etat. When misinformation thrives, chaos reigns.
"We have gotten past the stage where we are to be pardoned if we simply treat any part of our country as something to be 'skinned' for two or three years for the use of the present generation. Whether it is the forests, the water, the scenery, whatever it is, handle it so that your children's children will get the benefit." Wise words from President Roosevelt speaking in 1903 about the unparalled beauty of the Grand Canyon. His words seem to have fallen on deaf ears as 120 years later we are reaping the consequences of "skinning" the earth for man's benefit. As the beauty, mystery and loneliness of the Grand Canyon tell us, "Leave it as it is. Man can only mar it."
The guardrails have come off and this train is on a dangerous crash course. Thank you, Alex, for consistently sounding the alarm bell. Like a scene from Ferris Buehler's Day Off: "Life moves pretty fast, if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." Let's stop and look around. Let's not miss it.
Roosevelt would have agreed to another one of Ferris' insights: "The question isn’t ‘what are we going to do’, the question is ‘what aren’t we going to do' " While the fossil fuel industry loves to promote new things they propose to do (such as capturing carbon), the debate should be much more about what we aren't going to do, stop buring fossil fuels is a good start.
I agree when you write that « …those private sector respondents will have seen a year of unprecedented environment-related disasters that may finally convince them of the utmost urgency to act and that civil society and government stakeholders are right to emphasize the growing threat of reaching a point of no return. »
Some responsive action of a few industries is on the go... but it’s timid and faces many contradictors and hurdles.
And there are -of course- lots of generalizations here: some industries are ahead of the curve and some governments are not moving forward an inch towards sustainable policies. But the big picture is very clear and it is good that it's noted in the report.
Would you expand on “critical changes to earth systems”? Pardon my post nap foggy head, but do not understand that topic. However, all are certainly deeply disturbing. Thank you (I think) for sharing. 😘
My mind went straight to the hydrological cycle that we've already screwed up. Haven't read the report yet though.
Oceans or atmospheric?
Probably both!
If I remember correctly both are part of the same system, but I talked and wrote about it concerning rainfall and how a reliance on hydropower was not the smartest idea. I'll email you what I wrote.
Just thought of another system. The north Atlantic current.
Me, too!
Check on page 42 of the report:
"Based on the latest research, at least four systems are considered likely to tip at 1.5°C (Figure 2.5): low-latitude coral reefs die-off (high confidence), collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets (high confidence), and abrupt thawing of permafrost (medium confidence). There is also new evidence to suggest that the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation could additionally be placed at risk at 1.5°C, while the boreal forest, mangroves and seagrass
meadows will start to become vulnerable."
With each new report of this kind comes greater concerns and higher anxiety.
“The top five risks identified in the report are extreme weather events, critical changes to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and misinformation and disinformation.” No doubt these five top risks are on point but from where I am, it seems misinformation and disinformation underpin almost every risk.
It’s extremely frustrating to see credible scientific reports from experts with indisputable support being sneered at by those whose personal interests outweigh the common good and actual facts.
I also worry greatly about A.I. Although there are many positives about this new technology, in the wrong hands it can be disastrous. There must be some quick and decisive guardrails in place.
Thank you for being the purveyor of this important information for the rest of us. 🙏
There is much more in the report, and AI and misinformation are also prominently mentioned.
"I guess that a year from now, when the 2025 report comes out, those private sector respondents will have seen a year of unprecedented environment-related disasters that may finally convince them of the utmost urgency to act and that civil society and government stakeholders are right to emphasize the growing threat of reaching a point of no return."
This is what truly worries me.
And the rest of the report is also deeply worrying. I wish I had better news to share today.
Thank you for always keeping us apprised. It's best we know and so we are prepared 🌻
Worrying and clear perspectives. The endless dance between power and interests will lead us to a legacy of no options for a reality so clearly foretold. We must be able to dare challenges instead of collecting risks. Thank you for being a continuous voice of warning.
yes, well said. Collecting risks. And like any collector, we grow the collection.
Thank you for drawing my attention to this. That report is definitely not light reading. And it is encouraging that four out of the top five severe global risks are now environmental.
Personally, I would rank misinformation and disinformation higher than 5th. There is so much of it out there especially when it comes to climate change. And it's so difficult to get rid of. Once it's in people's minds it stays there.
I liked figure 2.3 because it shows nicely where the focus of those stakeholders are - I'm with Academia in terms of ranking misinformation and disinformation higher. We need to get a handle on this to pretty much get anything done. As long as the leaders people look up to keep lying about things, nothing is going to change. As long as companies or industries that are only interested in their own profits are allowed keep pushing their mis- and disinformation unhindered - we lose. All of us.
Too many more thoughts - I'll stop here.
And it's particularly disturbing that misinformation is in an overdrive in the US -historically the biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses- that is uncomparable to any other democratic country. Facts like who won the last election in their country to basic science like the impact of greenhouse gasses on the climate are hardly doubted by the public in the rest of the world. Nor would any other democracy accept a presidential candidate that tried a coup d'etat. When misinformation thrives, chaos reigns.