Cool Planets are Hard to Find

In three months, wildfires in the US already destroyed a larger area than last year in six months

Wildfires in Alberta have already burned more than three times the average for around this time of year. (Photo by Caleb Cook on Unsplash)

In three months, wildfires in the US already destroyed a larger area than last year in six months.

Air Quality Plummets in Parts of US to 25-Year Low

Approximately 44 million Americans have failing air quality ratings in their cities or counties. This decline in air quality, the worst in 25 years, spans parts of the US and is partly attributed to wildfires.

These are some conclusions in the latest “State of the Air” report from the American Lung Association. It highlights that cities in the Western region, including Los Angeles, San Bernardino (California), and Phoenix (Arizona), experience the poorest air quality.

The primary cause of increased pollution is small particle pollution, which includes airborne soot from sources like wildfire smoke. This type of pollution has profound health implications, including heart strain, heart attacks, strokes, lung cancer, and low birth weights.

Air quality in Europe has improved over the past ten years, and the European Parliament recently adopted stricter, legally binding air pollution limits that must be adhered to by 2030. The World Health Organization (WHO) also updated its air quality guidelines last year by promoting clean energy and aiming to prevent deaths caused by polluted air.

Despite the improvements, these additional measures are needed since European air pollution leads to 300,000 premature deaths annually. The EU aims to reduce this number by 70 percent over the next decade.

Wildfires more destructive in US and Canada

One cause of the deterioration in air quality is the increasing impact of wildfires on air pollution. This year’s impact so far must alarm the Lung Association and many others since the number of acres burned by wildfires in the US is far more extensive than last year, even when the number of wildfires is a bit below the ten-year average for this time of year, indicating that the average fire is becoming more destructive.

With 1.7 million acres of land already destroyed in the first three months of the year, this year’s impact may be (far) worse than last year’s total destruction of 2.7 million acres. These scary numbers are not incidental but fit in a longer-term trendline. In recent years, the annual wildfire season starts earlier, lasts longer into the fall, and is characterized by more intense, extreme, and complex to handle fires.

North of the US border, the situation is even worse. Last year, wildfires in Canada were record-shattering, but indications for this year are even more worrying. Wildfires in Alberta have already burned more than 755 hectares of forest this season, three times the average around this time of year.

Forests in large areas of Alberta and neighboring British Columbia are tinder-box dry because of drought and hot weather. The situation can quickly escalate further, and fire restrictions have been implemented.

Many recent extreme weather events have been negatively impacted by climate change and El Niño. The former is man-made and constantly worsens conditions, while El Niño is a natural phenomenon that is now rapidly waning. The tiny bit of positive news is that La Niña will soon take over. It shouldn’t distract us from the alarming trend of global warming.

Although much is said about better techniques and coordination to fight wildfires, the only way to avoid the structural worsening of this global disaster is to tackle the root of the problem: the climate crisis. That requires a very steep decline in greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal plant emissions increased

Unfortunately, there is little hopeful news to report on that front. Coal should be a prime target because of its vast capacity to pollute the atmosphere. But last year, the global capacity for coal power experienced growth for the first time since 2019, despite urgent warnings that coal plants should close at a rate of at least 6 percent annually to prevent a climate emergency.

According to a recent report by Global Energy Monitor, coal power capacity expanded by 2 percent during the past year. This increase was primarily driven by constructing new coal plants in China.

Globally, approximately 69.5 gigawatts (GW) of coal plant capacity came online in 2023, with two-thirds of these new plants being built in China. Coal-fired power plants were also established in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece, and Zimbabwe.

Over 21 GW of capacity was retired in the US and Europe last year, resulting in a net annual increase of nearly 48.5 GW, the highest since 2016.

Coal power capacity expanded by 2 percent during the past year. (Photo by Johannes Plenio on Unsplash)

Although the required 6 percent coal plant closure per year remains a daunting challenge, there are some positive expectations. The increase in low-carbon options for China suggests that the country’s investment in coal plants may slow down.

In the USA and Europe, an increasing number of coal plants will shut down, and there is a near-global trend of a slowdown in the construction of new coal plants. Outside China, the number of newly constructed coal plants was only a quarter of the average in the 2015–2022 period last year.

Positive news also comes from the US. Yesterday, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized regulations to reduce pollution from existing coal and new natural gas-fired power plants that operate more than 40 percent of the time. The goal is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 90 percent; existing coal power plants must adhere to this standard by 2032 if they intend to continue operating beyond 2039.

Taking stock of where we are in 2024

We need this kind of hopeful news to stay motivated to fight the causes and impacts of climate change. Many examples provide hope for technological developments (such as renewable energy or EVs) and climate action policy measures. However, we should also be realistic about the increasingly devastating consequences of climate change and related environmental challenges. That brings me back to the leading cause of climate change: the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

For many years, I have been involved in different capacities on climate change policies, especially the planetary security aspects, where our changing planetary conditions impact human and international security. Never before have I been so worried about the relevant global climate data and the impacts that we see worldwide. To illustrate this, I share a graph published by Professor Eliot Jacobson, whom I recommend you to follow on X/Twitter: @EliotJacobson.

Global sea-surface temperatures since 1982, with 2023 data omitted (graph by Prof. Eliot Jacobson)

This graph shows the global sea-surface temperatures since 1982, where each blue line represents the date for one year. Only the year 2023 is left out, which gives a stunning illustration of the absurdly rapid heating of the oceans.

While all blue lines form a plate of spaghetti, 2024 floats far above all other lines like one of Vincent van Gogh’s crows above the wheatfield with the path to nowhere he painted in his final days.

Vincent van Gogh, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

If this were a graph about the results of an Olympic sports event, each blue-line contender would protest vehemently about a blatant case of doping. Sadly, the analogy isn’t far off; humanity has administered a sustained barrage of greenhouse gas doping shots to the planet, resulting in unprecedented global warming records being shattered.

Delaying effective climate action for decades has sustained high profits for those responsible for the crisis while putting a massive burden on countries and people with zero global warming responsibility.

This notion has been valid for decades, but a recent study shows that this inequality will become even more blatant in the decades ahead. Research published in the journal Nature by researchers at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research predicts an annual financial cost of climate change of about $38 trillion by 2049.

For countries like the US or Germany, this means a projected median income reduction of 11% compared to what they would have earned without climate change. Globally, that number is 19%. The relatively highest bill is presented to the poorest countries, which will suffer 61% more income loss than the richest ones.

Hope is not enough; we need brave political leadership

Air quality dropping to a 25-year low, wildfires destroying three times as much forest, and rising coal plant emissions are just some of the many alarm bells going off all over the planet. The temperatures in the atmosphere and the oceans continue to increase, and the consequences scientists have warned about are clear to all.

Tackling climate change should be the highest policy priority for the leaders of the about two dozen most polluting countries that bear the brunt of the responsibility. All other leaders, businesses, organizations, and individuals should do their part, but we won’t solve this existential problem without brave political leadership. That’s where you come in. Besides reducing your flights and meat consumption, you can make one more contribution to preserve this still pretty cool planet: vote for leaders who can make the changes we all want to see.

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