Biden's climate policy challenges
For those that follow climate change, last week was an exciting one because of the climate summit and the renewed efforts of the US to fight climate change. Reading the comments, I get the impression that there are two camps among those who care about the environment. Some say that this is too little change at too slow space, and some welcome the U-turn in America's climate politics. There is a third group: those who represent the vested interests of the fossil fuel industry, and they like nothing more than seeing disagreement among environmentalists. I spoke yesterday in a video message about my view; I welcome the U-turn as a crucial step for climate action, and I also agree that this first step is not enough and that so much more is needed.
Post pandemic surge
The Biden Administration is doing many things right after the disastrous leadership, or lack thereof, of the previous president. One interesting indicator of successful policy implementation is the speed of the vaccinations; America vaccinates remarkably faster than most other western countries.
In the UK, one of the small group of countries that moves even faster in the vaccination roll-out than the US, we can see what happens once the pandemic is over. Britain's economy is this year forecasted to grow at the fastest rate since the second world war. Consumer spending is booming now that the lockdown measures are relaxed. It reminded me of last week's IEA forecast, predicting this year a surge in the global CO2 emissions of almost 5% to 33 billion tonnes.
Sitting in the control room in the White House, President Biden has now to operate the various policy steering wheels for his transformation of the economy, which is a highly complex task. If the UK and IEA predictions are correct, he will see a surge in economic growth and, therefore, an increase in emissions. Bending the upwards moving CO2 curve to one that will go down to get to the 50 percent reduction in 2030 against the 2005 numbers will be challenging.
Coordinating the transformation
The energy transformation experience in Germany showed how the massive investment in renewables caused difficulties with the existing grid built for a classic distribution of centrally produced fossil (and nuclear) energy. The two countries are not entirely comparable, and the German move had nothing to do with fossil fuels (their coal use sadly increased to get rid of nuclear energy), but I expect that the grid will be a challenge for the US of which we will hear more in the years to come. Some of the many other challenges in the control room for the overall coordination are the new jobs, decent salaries, and the regional differences; new jobs don't have to appear where the old ones are lost. But the US has shown in the past what it can achieve in a short time when all efforts are well-coordinated; the New Deal, the Second World War, and the Apollo project all prove what is possible.
Air pollution is a killer of millions
When discussing the need for climate action, we often hear primarily about extreme weather disasters, heat, drought, and sea-level rise. There is usually less attention to the impact on our health. New research may change that narrative. In 2018, one if five people on the planet died because of air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels. Imagine this statistic for a moment; 8,7 million deaths: about three times the number of people who have so far died worldwide during the pandemic. One in five is a global average. The research estimates the most significant mortality over regions with substantial fossil fuel-related air pollution, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5 million), and parts of eastern US, Europe, and Southeast Asia. The mortality in South America, Africa, West Asia, and the Middle East was lower than the world average.
The losers of Trump’s deregulation
The largest share of greenhouse gas emissions in the US is the transportation sector. President Obama, therefore, saw raising the standard for cleaner cars as a powerful tool for his climate policy. But the Trump administration rolled back this policy, weakening auto emission standards and adding nearly a billion additional metric tons of climate-warming CO2 in the atmosphere. Some in the car industry will have liked it since they asked Trump for freezing the standards. The losers were first of all the consumers, who lost money to the fossil fuel industry because they collectively ended up paying for an estimated 80 billion more gallons of gas. Who also lost were all Americans because of the health hazards of air pollution. And the biggest loser was the global environment because of more greenhouse gasses. As the Biden Administration is doing, reinstating all relevant regulations is a quick win for picking suitable low-hanging fruit to achieve lower emissions.
Oklahoma
While writing about car regulations, I can not avoid mentioning the latest car regulations in Oklahoma. That state may not be very well on the mental map of readers outside the US, but you may have heard of Senator Inhofe, who chaired the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. You will likely remember him as the climate denier who brought a snowball to the Senate to strengthen his arguments that environmentalists keep talking about global warming even though it keeps getting cold. This widely published snowball event was only six years ago; I suppose we can agree that recent changes in Washington, where scientists are now listened to, are good for the planet.
But back to Oklahoma: a new law in that state increases penalties for demonstrators who block public roadways. At the same time, it grants immunity to motorists who unintentionally kill or injure protesters while attempting to flee. To my knowledge, this law is unique in the world, even in far less democratic countries than the United States (but let me know if your country has this law too). If I understand it correctly, this law seems made to make demonstrations more dangerous for those who participate. The bill was introduced in response to an incident in Tulsa last May when a pickup truck drove through a crowd that protested the police killing of George Floyd.
Photo
Today I saw the first tulips in Ottawa, orange ones. As a Dutchman, that makes me happy. It feels like home where I grew up in the tulip area.
If you enjoy reading The Planet, you help other readers and me if you do one of the following:
If you don’t receive this newsletter yet, please sign up to receive it in your inbox. More signups make this publication more visible, and you have something to read while you drink your coffee.
If you have signed up and still like it, please consider taking a subscription. If you can’t afford it, please stay and keep reading.
If you have subscribed, you already made me happy. Stay, enjoy, comment, and consider giving a subscription to your friends (some just did, I love that)
That's a lot to digest. Thank you!
I walked by a nuclear power plant yesterday and took a picture of the nature around it. You can clearly see all the power lines. So, that makes me wonder how distribution will work once we switch to renewables. We already have a lot of hydro power in my area as well, but I never considered the entire grid and distribution as a problem (I don't really follow what is going on in Germany much - I guess I should). Something to look into.
Regarding air pollution. Again feeling really lucky to live where I do. In Switzerland pollution might be an issue during hot summer months or in winter when the fog does not lift for weeks. Other than that our air quality is good. I can't imagine what it must be like to live somewhere where simply breathing can be deadly.
I have no words for that law in Oklahoma ... But I love that you ended this newsletter on a positive note and how fitting that those first tulips you saw in Ottawa were orange.
Wonderful essay, as usual, Alex! Thanks! So worth it.