From COVID to Conflict: a Short History of The Last Four Years

Stockholm, February 26, 2020 (all photos in article by author)

On this day, four years ago, I could never have imagined how many rapid and fundamental changes would shape our destiny on this small, beautiful, and challenged planet.

Four years ago: February 2020

On this day, four years ago, February 26, 2020, the United States had just confirmed 18 more cases of a new virus, including several evacuated passengers from a cruise ship. It brought the total number of infected Americans to 53. The Atlantic published an article titled "You're likely to get the coronavirus." On the same day, the WHO said it was not (yet) a pandemic. Soon, we would all add a new word to our vocabulary: COVID-19.

I was that day in Stockholm. I know because I took a photo of the silhouette of the buildings on the island where I lived against the setting sun. I worked those days as an international public speaker; I had flights scheduled for the next months to London and Brussels and an extensive tour in the United States, which included a stop at Gettysburg for a full day of exploring history. It was scheduled between my events in Washington DC, Penn State University, and Colorado. Soon, I would have to cancel all those speaking engagements.

Four years later, I still have a visit to the former battlefield of Gettysburg on my bucket list. Meanwhile, tensions rise between Democrats and an increasingly theocratic, anti-democracy cult in a country where a national clash of cultures may unfold that will rattle American and global geopolitics in unpredictable and, therefore, potentially dangerous ways.

But in a world rapidly spinning out of control, I enjoyed a typical day in that beautiful city of Stockholm. There was no talk about masks or even handwashing. In the following months, living in Sweden would feel like living on a pleasant island while a global storm panicked the rest of the planet. I remember we could still sit on the terraces of those cozy cafes along the lake, discussing how the rest of the world closed down.

Looking back, the long-term impact on society has been enormous. Working from home, not wearing a tie, and joining video meetings are just some aspects of our post-pandemic life. But the impact goes much deeper. Trust in governance has eroded, a development that goes hand in hand with an increasing lack of confidence in science. Children missed vital semesters of education, and the economy and the labor market have structurally changed. And then all those direct victims who died, still suffer from long-covid, or struggle with related mental health issues. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a movement in a few years asking for more events and coordinated efforts to remember them.

Three years ago: February 2021

I searched the internet for what happened in this month three years ago. The picture is worrying: a military coup in Myanmar, the US Senate started the impeachment trial against Donald Trump, and increasing extreme weather events such as the winter storms in the US. The world changed during the pandemic, and we will forever remember the experience.

The US death toll from COVID-19 passed 500,000, one year after the number of 54 infected cases I just mentioned. That number was already higher than the combined US deaths in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War and would continue to rise.

I lived far from all that suffering in the beautiful winter landscapes near Ottawa. Life was isolated. I couldn't travel and didn't enjoy speaking at webinars, so I started writing this newsletter. Although I missed the socializing, I loved the solitude and pristine beauty of the outdoors. This photo is from a snowshoe hike in late February 2021.

Two years ago: February 2022

I don't have to search the internet for this month; on the 24th, Russia launched a full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by land, air, and sea, creating long-term indescribable horror for countless people who just wanted to live their lives in peace. You will have followed the news and analysis in the past few days. 

Someday, historians will write about these first years of the third decade of the 21st century and try to connect the historical dots, such as those I mention in this newsletter. Against the background of the slowly developing existential threat of the climate disaster, many world leaders seem ever more power-hungry and only geared toward extending their power in the few decades they have before their lives are over.

So many of these leaders don't care about the long-term future, their people, or the next generation. On a geological scale, they rule on a slice of earth for mere seconds and fail to use that short time to turn back the global thermostat. When the planet needed the guidance of visionary leaders, we saw a near-global rise of populists who offered slogans, fake news, and false promises.

In February 2022, Madagascar was hit by a massive cyclone; the American Southwest experienced the worst megadrought in 1,200 years, extreme rainfall killed hundreds of people in China, and the koala was listed as an endangered species in Queensland for the first time. 

And while the world focussed on scenes in Ukraine that nobody expected to see again in post-WWII Europe, a report of the IPCC drowned in the media coverage of the war. The report warned about the increasing risk of climate change to human health, infrastructure, the stability of food and water resources, and the biodiversity of the planet's ecosystems. It stated that climate change is an ongoing disaster already endangering humans and natural environments worldwide. It warned that the world is running out of time to stave off the most devastating consequences of global warming.

I look at my photos of that month. Just two days before the start of the war, I posted an irrelevant tweet about "twosday", 22-2-22. But two days after the invasion of Ukraine, I posted this photo on Twitter: a flag that soon would be recognized by all of us:

A year ago: February 2023

It was the month when President Biden visited Kyiv and when a political storm erupted between two superpowers when a Chinese surveillance balloon was shot down by US fighter jets off the US eastern seaboard. It was also the month when UN Secretary General António Guterres called the global financial system "dysfunctional and unfair," and he added it was "failing developing countries."

Political tensions and wars kept flaming up while -mainly out of the media's limelight- the planet's temperature kept rising. It never rises so much in one day that politicians are alarmed to a level that it becomes their first priority. Alarm bells go off, but only within limited informed communities or in a country or region that gets hit with climate-related disasters.

In New Hampshire, the coldest wind chill likely ever recorded in the US was measured this month as minus 108 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 78 Celsius). Far to the south, the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo was hit by flooding and landslides after heavy rain. But the most worrisome news came from even further to the south: scientists warned the Thwaites Glacier, the so-called "Doomsday Glacier" and the size of Florida, was weakening, threatening a global sea level rise of 1.6 meters.

I wonder what I did in late February last year. There are hardly any photos except for me with a glass of red wine in a cafe that I don't recognize. I wrote about Sophie Scholl's brave resistance against the Nazi regime, and on February 27, it was 90 years ago that the Reichstag was set on fire. I mentioned it in this article, where I also wrote about the woman I knew who had been a classmate of Marinus van der Lubbe who set (or did not set, we will never know) the Reichstag on fire. Rereading it, I found these lines I wrote a year ago:

"Simple solutions never worked in politics, and they never will. But they are increasingly becoming more popular. And that includes the popularity of a strong leader. It's noteworthy that the pattern is often that the rest of the world doesn't understand why that particular man (yes, it's nearly always a man) and his quick-fix solutions can be so popular.

For instance, Americans didn't pay enough attention to the rise of Hitler in the 1930s. It was hard to take him seriously, which wasn't helped by his resemblance to Charlie Chaplin, the brilliant lookalike actor born just five days before Hitler."

Now: February 2024

It is February 2024, and here I will end my short journey through the Februaries of this decade. Fear those politicians with simple solutions and weird hairdos, for history proves they do the terrible things they have preached before coming into power. Hitler gave only 12 of the 1000 years he promised, but the evil he had promised to do was executed to the letter. 

When political hopefuls discriminate, promise revenge, disregard the law, or show disloyalty to allies and democracy, don't ignore the risk.

As so often before, I type in my quiet room, surrounded by books, articles, electronic devices, and a sleeping cat. Outside, it storms and rains, while far away in other capitals, leaders and hopefuls dream of power and glory instead of better lives for the people they claim to represent.

You won't find the ideal leader. Even the good ones have to make compromises that are painful to watch. But if you are lucky enough to live in a country with free and fair elections, vote the worst candidate out by voting for the best one available. 

Remind me in late February next year to add another paragraph to this article, and let's hope it's one full of positive news. If you can vote, you are shaping history. If you all do, you can make a change for the better. 

I write this newsletter because I believe we can do better on this beautiful but fragile planet if we work together.

You can subscribe for free to receive this newsletter in your email, but please consider supporting this initiative by paying for a subscription. The paying subscribers make it possible for those who can't afford it to read for free.