Five Years Ago: a Different World We Could Never Have Predicted

October 21, 2018, a view at Riddarholmen, Stockholm

Five years ago, in October 2018, the world seemed like a different place. I may have had hopes, dreams, fears, and uncertainties, but I would never have predicted the rollercoaster ride that awaited us. I just searched on my phone to find out what I did on this day five years ago, and I found only one photo; it is this one:

I must have taken it from Södermalm while standing on the waterfront of the Mälaren Lake, not far from my Stockholm home. It was a Sunday, which makes it likely that I took this picture just before starting a run around this part of the big lake, a route that would pass captivating sights that I had visited during my years in Sweden, including the famous town hall where every year on December 10, the Nobel Banquet is served after the Nobel prize ceremony.

Where were you five years ago? And a more challenging question: would you have had any idea what the future had in store for you and all of us in these five years?

Looking back at these five years, I find the speed, complexity, and direction of the unfolding global events profoundly worrying. And as so often before, I feel like a spectator; in the comfort of a cinema chair, I watch a scary movie, and while eating another hand of popcorn, my eyes are fixated on the angry man with an axe that keeps hitting the fragile door.

Pandemic

A tiny disruptor got a foothold in China about a year after I stood on the waterfront. Like Mike Campbell's bankruptcy in "Fiesta," it developed in two ways: gradually, then suddenly. When the life-altering COVID-19 pandemic erupted, I was still in Stockholm. It was the eye of the storm and about the only place in the world where we drank our beers on crowded terraces while reading on our smartphones about a world retreating in isolation. The virus erupted globally, took countless lives on every continent, and reshaped the very fabric of our existence. Our daily routines, how we work, socialize, and travel, all changed in a way nobody would ever have imagined.

Our world was tested and showed huge vulnerabilities in society. After some of the world's wealthiest companies had spent decades convincing the public that scientific findings on what you inhale from smoking and emit through smokestacks are false, trust in science had eroded to dangerously low levels. In some countries, the distrust had crept up to the presidential level with deadly consequences for the President's adoring, non-vaxing followers and, therefore, for everyone else; a trend that goes hand in hand with social media being often abused by those who prefer to spread lies and create distrust.

Our world also showed strength, like the self-sacrifice of millions of health workers willing to risk their own lives to save the lives of others. Many didn't survive, and many more will never be fully recognized for their heroism. I haven't heard of any monument raised for those heroes, but if there are some, there aren't enough to show our gratitude.

And we saw strength in science. Brave, creative academics who dared to take untested routes to save us by creating new methodologies to make the urgently needed vaccines. Soon, on December 10, their work, and those of many others, will be celebrated in that same town hall of Stockholm I passed during my run on this day five years ago.

Climate Crisis

Back in 2018, climate change was a topic of concern. I had by then worked on its impacts for over a decade, but its urgency didn't hit home as it does now. That year, the United Nations' IPCC warned us that we had just over a decade to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Since then, the planet has shown its fury with devastating wildfires, record-breaking hurricanes, and catastrophic floods; records were broken at record speed while global emissions of greenhouse gasses keep increasing.

You must be blind if you still don't see how climate change impacts our lives. I wrote in this newsletter about my personal climate-related challenges in the past years, experiencing heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. You likely also experienced them in ways you would not have imagined if I had asked you this question if we had met on that Stockholm waterfront in October 2018.

The stakes are now higher, and the need for action is more pressing than ever. Mother Nature doesn't negotiate; she demands our attention, and if all those experiences and the latest global climate data of September 2023 don't alarm you and convince you of the extraordinary and dangerous situation we are in, no set of data ever will.

Political Turmoil

I wasn't relaxed about world politics in 2018. Still, I would not have predicted the brutal invasion of a sovereign European country, nor would I have thought that in my lifetime, a large-scale pogrom would take place with a horrific cruelty that only matches the worst memories of a very dark history. I fear tragic cycles of violence. I worry about too many leaders whose sole aim seems to be to cling to power instead of focusing on the long-term needs of the people. In 2023, peace and leading happy, healthy lives feel like a dream, as distant as many of the other Global Goals the world agreed to in 2015.

Artificial Intelligence in a world of folly

Since 2018, chaos seemed to be on the winning hand, but at the same time, technology has sprinted ahead in ways I would not have foreseen. Blockchain, virtual reality, and especially Artificial Intelligence have taken enormous steps forward. Five years ago, these innovations were on the horizon. I remember visiting the lively monthly events organized in the Stockholm Hilton Hotel conference room, where innovative minds spoke about the future of AI. Lacking technical expertise, it struck me as though I had stumbled into the pages of a science fiction novel.

Fast forward five years later, these technologies are part of our daily lives, proven by the autocorrection of my screen just a second ago when I misspelled the word "daily." Our world is more interconnected and data-driven than ever before, and with it comes a new set of challenges; many fear the power of AI, and we may know five years from now if we should have taken these warnings much more seriously.

Five years ago, on this day, it was a sunny Sunday. I took only one photo and ran a beautiful route around a lake in Stockholm. I had no idea about the speed and direction of the developments on our planet. So it worries me to think about the next five years, especially since there seems to be an ever-faster pace of new and often dangerous developments. Do we live on a planet that is spinning out of control?

I wonder how you feel about the future of the environment, politics, stability, technology, society, inequality, moral values, and our shared humanity. Do you believe that we have the opportunity to redefine ourselves? Will we be the generation confronting climate change head-on and leaving a sustainable planet for our children? Will we find peaceful solutions to political conflicts? And will we ensure that social justice becomes an enduring pillar of all our societies?

The future keeps surprising me in unexpected ways; I hope this time, the surprises will be positive in the next five years.

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