Climate Scientists Sound the Alarm About the Atlantic's Crucial Conveyor Belt

Why the AMOC should be on top of our political leaders' agendas.

Topographic map of the Nordic Seas and subpolar basins with surface currents (solid curves) and deep currents (dashed curves). (image: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/Science/USGCRP., CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

Captain Henry Ellis is one of those fascinating characters of 18th-century England whose life combines scientific exploration, colonial administration, commerce, and politics. At age 25, Ellis was the scientific observer on an expedition to Hudson's Bay in search of the Northwest Passage. During this voyage, which took place in 1746-1747, he gathered scientific data about the Gulf Stream and experimented to measure water temperature at different depths. It gave new insights into the warm current flowing northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico, which he immediately utilized to chill his wine by sinking the bottles into the cold, deeper waters of the Atlantic.

He was unaware of the broader implications of his observed oceanic patterns, such as their critical role in climate and agriculture. Nor would he have thought that centuries later, scientists would warn of the consequences of ocean currents slowing down, especially the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) associated with the Gulf Stream.

Unfortunately, in the age of science, mass communication, and—recently—growing public awareness about climate change, the AMOC remains largely unknown.

It should be one of our foremost worries about climate change; every new measurement or insight should be reported on the front pages of our newspapers to readers eagerly awaiting what will happen. I know it is a competitive field with hundreds of climate worries, and most are candidates to be the most problematic, but this is a big one. So, if you missed the news, I will share a few lines about the AMOC so that you will read the article the next time you see this abbreviation used.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Imagine the Atlantic Ocean as a giant bathtub, with the AMOC as its plumbing system. It transports warm water northward near the surface and cold water southward in the depths of the Ocean. This cold southward current is far deeper than Captain Ellis sank his bottles, about two to four kilometers deep. This cold return flow is crucial in global climate regulation and nutrient distribution throughout the world's oceans.

Unfortunately, this powerful oceanic conveyor belt is slowing down, and scientists are more vocally expressing their concerns every year. Again, climate change (and thus us, humans, and our emissions) is to blame. Greenland is losing an astonishing 30 million tons of ice per hour. All this additional fresh water pouring into the Ocean may lead to the collapse of the AMOC, which would have severe consequences for humanity. 

For instance, the climate in the UK could become like New Foundland, with temperatures of ten to fifteen degrees Celsius colder, which would have a catastrophic impact on living conditions and agriculture. However, in West Africa, the temperatures would increase to such levels that local agriculture could collapse, potentially leading to increased migration.

An urgent message to policy makers

This week, 44 prominent climate experts from across the globe sounded the alarm on the potential collapse of the AMOC in a stark warning that has sent ripples through the scientific community. The scientists from 15 countries paint a grim picture of the consequences should the AMOC fail. They argue that the impacts would be devastating and irreversible on human timescales, affecting global climate patterns for centuries.

Their urgent message to policymakers is clear: the risks associated with an AMOC collapse demand immediate and decisive measures to mitigate climate change.

Their warning received ample attention in the climate and scientific communities, but the message was soon lost to the general audience and policymakers. The media, politicians, and voters are all focused on another immediate danger with massive consequences. American voters on November 5 can quickly neutralize this risk by voting for the other candidate in the race for the White House. Looking at all our global challenges, this should be a no-brainer.

The problem with the climate crisis is that something else that is urgent and important always gets all the attention. Other issues that are also important and urgent but get even less attention than climate change—the war in Sudan comes to mind.

However, climate change and the potential collapse of the AMOC will have everlasting consequences for humanity. This risk is so consequential that world leaders should stop enjoying the luxury of ignoring it and pushing decision-making forward until after the next elections or until another government moves first.

America has another urgent problem

I've mentioned that future historians will not be kind to the folly of today's world. All energy and media attention is focused on whether a convicted, brain-damaged (I’m quoting experts here) felon with a dubious track record of failures and bankruptcies should be a better president than a talented former prosecutor and senator.

Meanwhile, some of the world's best climate scientists' warnings about a threat to humanity's future are ignored.

I named this newsletter The Planet because our community on Substack cares about the only home we have. We found each other on this platform because we all love the Earth's beauty, so I often write about nature and enjoying the outdoors. But equally, this newsletter warns about the future of our living conditions on this unique planet and the failure of governance to protect and preserve our only paradise. So, forgive me for ignoring the US elections today; I know these weeks are crucial, but the Planet doesn't have the time to wait for Americans to decide.

Notes:

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/19/climate-disruption-will-be-the-precursor-to-global-political-disruption/

https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/10/24/this-tipping-point-would-be-catastrophic-for-europe-but-scientists-are-unsure-when-well-re

https://climatechangeinstitute.net/ive-studied-geopolitics-all-my-life-climate-breakdown-is-a-bigger-threat-than-china-and-russia-anatol-lieven/