Al Jaber - COP28: "We need to go much further and much faster."

Jan 17, 2023

Desert sunrise on solar panels (photo: Nuno Marques, Unsplash)

I watched online the opening of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week Summit. You may remember I wrote some days ago that I would write about this event this week, and I will. But there is more going on in the world, and I may need some paragraphs of detours to get there.

It was also Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It's only twenty-three years ago, in the year 2000, that MLK Day was, for the first time, officially observed in all 50 states of the US. So it took many years since Ronald Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983. Some states resisted observing the holiday as such. Instead, they gave it alternative names or combined it with other holidays.

Outside the United States, MLK Day is also observed in several places. For instance, in the Netherlands, the Dr. Martin Luther King Tribute and Dinner has been held in Wassenaar every year since 1987. And in Ottawa, my other hometown, the municipal government officially began observing this national holiday in 2005.

Three years ago, I posted for 365 days a digitally made sketch with a message every day. This is the one I posted on MLK Din 2020.

My written comment on the sketch will likely be challenging to read on your screen (that lack of writing space explains why I later created The Planet newsletter), so I will repeat the first lines here:

"We must learn to live together as brothers, or we will perish together as fools."

Just one of the dozens of quotes from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. that I read today on MLK Day. Many of these are used out of context, with the risk that it weakens his message. A message that remains so important after all these years.

Having said that, I can't read a statement like this without thinking about the situation we find ourselves in today. Different contexts, different people, and even a different planet. But when humanity faces an existential threat by a rapidly warming planet and a frightening loss of nature, the wisdom of former leaders may still guide us.

So three years ago, I connected MLK's quote to climate action, and I will do so again today; we still need to learn to live together as brothers, and we still risk perishing together as fools if we don't sort out collectively how to live sustainably on the only planet we have.

The past eight years are the hottest ever measured

And that brings me to the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, which takes place when the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) show that 2022 was one of the warmest years ever recorded. It ranks in the fifth or sixth spot in the top eight of the warmest years ever measured by scientists. More worrying is that the past eight years are now collectively the hottest ever measured. Even the cooling influence of an already three-year-long persistent La Niña hasn't pushed 2022 from its high ranking, although it may have prevented even worse extremes.

According to NASA, temperatures are increasing by more than 0.2C per decade, which puts the world on track to pass the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5C to avoid its most devastating consequences. Gavin Schmidt, the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said about blowing through this limit: "the only way that we're not going to do that is if we stop putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,"

COP28 president designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber

And all that I just mentioned, the vision of Martin Luther King Jr. about living as brothers to avoid perishing as fools, the warnings of the WMO, and Dr. Gavin Schmidt's view that the only solution is to stop emitting greenhouse gasses, was shared these days by Sultan Al Jaber, who will lead the climate COP28 in November. It's not that he directly referred to them, but his warnings that "the world is way off track" to hit the climate goals and that the "world should come together to meet the urgency of this moment" fit entirely into this picture.

President designate COP28, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2023 (screenshot from ADSW.live)

But wait, I'll hear what you think. Isn't Sultan Al Jaber the head of the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, one of the world's largest? Yes, he is. Environmentalists worldwide quickly criticized his selection for chairing these all-important climate negotiations. And I must admit that this looks like an unusual choice at first glance. Perhaps I would prefer a climate activist to chair the COP. And, assuming we go for the ideal climate negotiations scenario, I would like to negotiate with only a handful of countries; let's say we pick Bhutan, New Zealand, or Costa Rica as the participating parties of an alternative mini-conference. I see room for lots of ambition and progress in that scenario.

However, that is not the reality of the world we live in. One of the reasons why we have made so little progress after 27 COPs is the vastly different interests of the more than 190 participating states. From the Marshall Islands to the US and Mali to Sweden, we must find agreements between entirely different societies.

The inconvenient truth of the multilateral climate change negotiations is that it only works when we have all countries on board and do not cherry-pick a few favorites. We need all governments because we all suffer increasingly from climate change, and we all must be committed to climate action to make it work. So in those conditions, should only one group of countries chair the meetings? Or will more diversity in chairmanship over the years bring us closer to consensus?

United Arab Emirates

Choosing the UAE, an oil-producing state, as host for the climate COP has been more criticized than several western countries that hosted COPs, even though many of them burn far more fossil fuels than the UAE. So is the producer of fossil fuels more to blame for the climate crisis than the countries that burn their oil and gas?

But if so, what about Norway? It's another example of a country with an economy that heavily leans on fossil fuel production. I know what you will say; they invest it in exemplary sustainability projects at home. But then you have likely missed the impressive track record of the UAE in investing worldwide in sustainability projects. The country has also become less reliant on oil and gas. Instead, it has become increasingly economically focused on other sectors like tourism and business, which has made it the country with the most diversified economy among the Gulf States.

Renewables

Diversification of the economy is one of the best ways to prepare an oil and gas exporting country for the future. Part of the UAE's vision has been an early policy of investing in a renewable future. And against that background of a considerable turnaround from fossil to renewables, the appointment of Sultan Al Jaber to lead COP28 later this year fits perfectly well with the country he represents. Like the UAE, he started in fossil fuels and is still a leading player, but he was quick to embrace the vision to prepare for a future of renewable energy.

Sultan Al Jaber is also the country's special envoy for climate change, so he knows the fossil fuel industry as well as diplomacy. Add to this skill mix that the next leader of the climate negotiations is also the chairman of Masdar, the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, which is the UAE's clean energy champion and one of largest companies of its kind in the world. It focuses on advancing the development and deployment of renewable energy and green hydrogen technologies. Established in 2006, Masdar is active in over 40 countries. Its investment of some 50 billion dollars in renewable energy projects is helping these countries achieve their clean energy objectives and advance sustainable development.

“Impressive track record”

When John Kerry, America's climate envoy, welcomed Al Jaber's appointment, he referred to his experience as a diplomat and business leader and his role at Masdar. I also found it interesting to see what Frans Timmermans, the European Commission's Executive Vice-President and the EU's climate policy chief, had to say about Al Jaber's appointment. He said:

"I'm excited about the ambitions expressed this morning by Dr. Sultan, and I have such confidence in his ability to steer us into the right direction. Look at his track record, his impressive track record. He started with sustainability policies long before anybody else in the oil and gas sector was able to do that, or was convinced. Now we have some really tough cookies in that sector that we need to address. But I want them on board. I don't want them vilified; I want them on board. And I want him, and I'll help them where we can, to convince other executives in the oil and gas sector to finally start investing in transition towards renewable energy, because they have a lot of assets that are going to be essential in a post carbon world."

Alexander Verbeek 🌍 @Alex_Verbeek

🌍 Timmermans on COP28 president Al Jaber: “I want him, and I'll help them where we can, to convince other executives in the oil and gas sector to finally start investing in transition towards #renewableenergy” #ADSW #climate @ADSWagenda #energy #news

I had first listened to the criticism but then dived deeper into the background of both Sultan Al Jaber and his country and their early adoption of a vision toward a renewable future. I listened to some of the leading western players that will be in the negotiations at the end of this year, the US and the EU, and I'm impressed to see someone with these roots in the fossil fuel industry so committed to the transition to an energy future powered by renewables.

Passion and ambition

The only one I hardly gave the floor in the quotes that I mentioned is Al Jaber himself. I found his speeches passionate and ambitious. Chairing a COP is an enormous challenge; sadly, many COPs have failed. I won't make any predictions on the outcome of COP28, but I'm pleasantly surprised by what I learned during the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. I will follow this preparatory track this year with extra attention and will keep you informed.

Now, to end, I will share a few quotes from Dr. Sultan Al Jaber's presentations in the past few days.

"The United Arab Emirates approaches this role with humility, a deep sense of responsibility, and a great sense of urgency."

"Despite the progress that the world is making, we need to be honest with ourselves: we are way off track. We need to go much further and much faster. We are playing catch-up on our efforts to keep 1.5 alive. We need to reverse emissions while moving economies forward, enabling an inclusive and just transition that leaves no one behind."

"I asked myself, can the world come together to meet the urgency of this moment? Can the world cut emissions in half in the next seven years? And my answer is yes. I believe in the power of human progress. I believe in the power of our leadership's vision for progress through partnership. I believe that together, we can turn the greatest challenge we face into the opportunity of our lifetimes. So let's extend an open invitation, cooperate, collaborate, share your ideas, and let's put the principle of partnership into real practice."